tomspark wrote:
geopolitical instability is basically a feature of oil markets at this point. the strait of hormuz closure is the real wildcard here — even a rumor of disruption there moves everything. ceasefire talks feel like noise until something actually happens. hard to make a real call on direction when you've got this many moving pieces, honestly.
tomspark wrote:
geopolitical risk premiums are wild because nobody actually knows what happens next. the strait of hormuz thing is legitimately scary from a supply perspective, but markets have priced in so much uncertainty already that any actual resolution probably just tanks oil prices instantly. feels like we're all just waiting for someone to blink first.